Monday, July 28

hand review

i've been running really hot recently, but i just played a session the other day where i felt like i was tilting towards the end. i did quit, but i just wanted to review the hands from it to make sure i'm happy with my play and to see if the tilt effected me before i noticed it. there's only like 1k hands so there shouldn't be too many to talk about, here we go. btw, i'm reviewing the hands in order that way i can see if i did start to tilt at a certain point.

24o - i still really like how i played this hand. i think the flop raise is super standard because he is still calling with any decent J or any kind of draw. on the turn i think i still need to keep betting to get value out of the FD and i think i'm still getting called by like JQ type hands. on the river, i almost checked it, but i just couldn't see anything in his range that had me beat. another 2 pair hand didn't make sense in his UTG range on that board, and sets or slow-played over pairs would have gave some action at this point. pretty lame that he limps 56s UTG and then got runner runner 2 pair.

AQo - ok, this hand is spew. jesus this is dumb. pre is standard, i don't like 3betting with AQo v a standard TAG's UTG range. at 100NL i'm not worried about getting squeezed by many people. on the flop, i bet because so many regs just see flops like this and just tell themselves "my cbet won't get any credit, he'll just bluff raise or float me" and they go into c/f mode. when a semi-thinking reg c/c on this board and then decides to lead though it's generally some sort of strength and the bluff raise on the turn was just silly imo.

KQs
- this hand was super standard. villain was a complete spaz and i think shoving if i got ANY piece of the flop is +EV against him. obviously when he shows down a 3bet K2s from the SB and the b/c AI on the AKQ flop my point is proven.

QTs - i remember this hand pissing me off a bit. on the flop i took a while debating whether to semi-bluff or just call and see how the hand progresses. i decided on calling because our stack depth was deep enough to where he could have been planning a bet/3bet and forced me to fold (or even if he 3bet small enough to give me odds to draw i wouldn't be thrilled getting this much in that quickly). obviously the turn is gin, i took a bit deciding on my bet sizing and he basically snap called which screamed set to me. i said something like "you have to be fucking kidding" when the river hit, and then something about the same when he donked it. if he had made a reasonable bet i think i would have had a pretty easy fold here, but getting 5:1 i would be an idiot to fold. after seeing his hand i was pretty amazed because i had thought this player was decent before this hand but he played it pretty horribly.

K4o
- the hand literally right before this i had caused villain to make a big fold and he asked me in chat what i had and i told him 27. this little chat is what made me decide to just call the raise on the flop. i thought a lot of his range here was air bluffs and he was still all annoyed and would barrel off the turn as well. he did, but obviously the money was getting in one way or another anyhoo. don't slow-play them aces boys.

KK - standard, titled me a bit though.

JTs
- and here's what i was looking for, this hand is tilt related from the KK hand before. pre is marginal at best, i can easily muck this. the flop i don't hate, A hi boards are generally good to c/r bluff on. the thing is, when i get called on this i really shouldn't be barreling off on the off-suit 9. also, when i do decide to barrel off the turn i think that kind of commits me to 3 barrel bluffing the river. i think all set/2 pair combos pop me on the turn because the 9 just puts even more draws out there that you need to protect against. i think the only real hand i'm getting called by is AK on the river, and i think he probably even raises AK on the turn (or 3bets the flop) so i think i will be taking this pot down quite often with a 3 barrel. so i should have either given up after he called the flop c/r or committed to barreling off the river when the board runs that well.

KJo - another super standard hand. villain was a huge station (as you can see by what he shows down) so to not be potting it after he calls the flop would just be stupid. it's nice to get paid off this easily.

KK - tilllllt. same retarded villain as the hand above. because he was sitting on a half stack i decided to just flat the 3bet and jam any flop instead of 4betting. obv he hit a 3 outer because he's really good at this game.

AQo
- idk what i think about this hand. pre is standard, flop is standard. i think i remember having a read that this player was just stupid and bluffy so turn is fine. i decided to donk pot on the river because i didn't think he was ever bluffing in this spot and the only hand he VB's is a split, so i might as well try to look bluffy and hope he does something stupid. it's nice when shit works out the way you want it.

JJ - watch me lose a race ... this villain was super aggro pre so this is standard imo.

JJ - better result than last time. i don't remember why i chose to flat from the SB here, he must have been pretty tight. i still don't really like doing this, but i'm sure i had my reasons. flatting JJ in the sb is certainly not tilt related at least. the rest of the hand is pretty standard, i love my turn bet sizing and his river fold made me laugh pretty hard.

KTo - i actually i'm quite fond of this hand as well. villain was pretty aggro and i had seen him flat 3bets and raise them enough that he had to be doing it light at times. i remember making up my mind that i was just going to go with a top pair type hand against this guy, and that's exactly what i did. something i want to mix into my game is 3bet shoving as a bluff against the right players, because there are some people that will literally bluff every OOP cbet and it is insanely profitable to just shove on them with a huge range.

77 - ughhh, this hand is pretty close. i should go stove it but i'm lazy so i'll just leave it at that. i do know that this player was an aggro reg and def could be raising a wider range because he knows i'm doing an iso raise, but whether he goes ahead and cbets air/AK AQ AJ KQ on this board is questionable. if i knew he would go ahead and cbet all those types of hands that he 3bet me with then i like this, but i just am not sure he does that and without those hands in his range this play is pretty weak. and yes i do know my hand is a bluff at this point.

KK - god this hand sucks today. villain was a huge station and was calling down so light here that i just stuck it in. i don't even think i played it poorly, although the river has to be close seeing as the A hit on the turn AND the FD got there, but it's close. this tilted the shit out of me and is when i decided to end the session.

so that's the session, my net was -210. i didn't do anything overly stupid this session, although there were a few spots i could clean up. this makes me feel better about my game though, i remember worrying that i was tilting to much during this session and also thinking that i was just running hot before and this is how i should normally run. not true though, i'm godlike and should win lots and lots of money. not quite, but i can dream.

-geoff

Friday, July 25

HAHA

and here we go ...

17k gtd on FTP -- 50+5 buy-in

blind 25/50
effective stacks around T2200

HERO dealt AKs in MP

HERO opens for 150, BUTTON insta 3bets pot to 525, folds to HERO who 4bets 1250, BUTTON insta calls.

FLOP: Q x x

HERO shoves extra 900 into 2500 pot, BUTTON insta calls with QKo ...

i had a read on button that he was terrible so i really had no qualms about committing my life 40BB deep with AKs, obviously i had the right read too.

lunch and movie now, MTT's are the stupidest fucking things ever.

Wednesday, July 23

BIG pot ... and other news

i can't sleep so i figured i'd just blog, i'll start it off with my new biggest online pot to date. i might as well analyze the hand while i'm at it, my thought process was semi-interesting.



so here it goes. preflop is pretty standard when we're this deep seeing how well my hand flops. on the flop i obviously flop the nuts and would bet my life on it.

he had checked to me twice after 3betting preflop and had c/r'd once and c/c'd once. my thinking was that this board was just too perfect for him to cbet if he didn't have a hand, so he must be planning to c/r a monster because he knows i'm betting 90%+ of my range when checked to. so when he does c/r me (like i knew he would do) i decide to 4bet and just try to get it in because i really didn't think he was ever doing this light.

i like the min 4bet because it allows him to spaz out on the off chance he was buffing and decided i was full of shit, which is exactly what happened. feels good to pick off a 300+BB bluff, doesn't happen too often.

the sad part about this session overall is i only ended up like 1.5 buy-ins. i started off playing 6max but i was getting cold decked and no action on my good hands and ended up dropping ~2 buyins and decided to see if i could find a good HU match. but hell, i shouldn't complain. i'm just happy i'm having winning sessions and doing well.

more exciting news ... I CAN WITHDRAWAL EASILY! full tilt added an option called "cash pick up". all you do is wait 24-48 hours for them to authorize it, then they email you a verification code. you take this verification code to any moneygram location and just show your ID and the code and they give you cash. best part is my bank is a moneygram place, so i just have to run to the bank and can just throw the money into the bank.

as soon as i found out this new thing i took out 600, hopefully it authorizes sometime tomorrow so i'll have the cash on thursday. once i get the money i'm going straight to IKEA to get all the crap for my "office". i told myself i want to shop around a bit more for the monitor, but come thursday i'm sure i'll be impatient and just go pick up the nicest 22" at best buy and be satisfied.

i'm hoping having a desk and comfortable chair will allow me to focus for longer periods of times because i just get sleepy laying in bed and start to lose focus after an hour even. so with the coming of my "office" i've started thinking about how much time i actually want to play per month because i'm already really motivated from doing well this month on top of finally getting my desk that i've been talking about for 2 months now. here's how i hope the next few months work out as far as poker/school/work.

august - i'm debating whether i want to talk to dar about skipping a semester of school or not. i really am motivated to go to school and get a degree, but in the scheme of things having 5 or 6 months to get settled into a routine with poker would be incredibly helpful.

i plan on just sticking to 100NL through august regardless of how i run, hopefully i can run up my bankroll because idk if i'll be comfortable taking a shot at 200NL with just 4k. i'm really going to buckle down and try to put in 25 hours/wk, which is just 5 hours a day 5 days a week. i'm thinking those days will be wed-sun because the weekends are the best times to play and i like having mondays free for wild rivers :) my rakeback would look something like $1750ish if i actually 4 tabled 100 hours. my average hnds/hr is at 381 x 100 = 38,100 hands at a very modest winrate of 3PTBB/100 would be $2,286.

so theoretically i could be looking at $4036 if i just play a solid game and grind out the minimum next month, it's a bit harder than just saying it though. but i will put in the time and effort and really try to make that a reality because have a 4k month would be absolutely amazing. we'll say that my bankroll will end at 3500 this month, it should be higher if i keep playing but who knows how i'll run. so, i hit my 4k next month and this puts my roll at 7500. i withdrawal 1400 for my credit and my roll is down 6100. i still have 30.5 BI for 200NL which is incredibly comfortable.

september - this is when i plan to take my big 200NL shot. to me 200NL is kind of the start of actually making a decent living playing poker. i'm not saying 4k a month is something to sneeze at for a 20 year old college student, but i could be living fairly well off of 3PTBB/100 at 200NL. at this point i may or may not be in school, i'm not sure. if i am in school i won't be able to be playing 100 hours/mo, but i'll for the sake of this we'll pretend dar is supportive and understands i'm not just bs'ing and really do want to go to school and let's me do my thing.

so my thinking is i would still stick with 100 hours this month as well, same schedule as last august. at 200NL if we run the same numbers we are making roughly $2,500 from rakeback and $4,572 from grinding out the 3PTBB. so now we're looking at a 7k month and putting our total bankroll at 11k (except a very happy/excited blog post if/when my roll hits 5 figures btw).

assuming i run decent and don't have to drop down and have a huge meltdown i plan on taking out around 1k a month to pay for all my expenses as well (insurance phone vikki food gas and other stuff). this applies for last month as well, i'll just be throwing all my islands money in the bank as well. actually my roll would be at around 9k after i took out 2k (1k per month).

october - i plan october to look a lot like august, just keep playing 200NL hopefully and grind out another winning month. we'll just go ahead and say i run normal again and make 7k, minus 1k for life, which would put my total bankroll at 15k. fun fun, if this all goes according to plan i will be a pretty happy person.

november - ok, so here's when i want to start kicking things into gear. assuming i've been at 200NL the last two months and been doing well and winning i want to start pushing it. not in a bad way, but i just want to start playing a bit more to make it more like a full time job (because i'm hoping this will replace islands by 2009). so this month i want to play 30 hours weeks instead of 25.

at 120 hours we're now looking at $3,200 from rakeback and $5,486 ... $8,686. not that much more money, but i just want to be playing as much as possible. if i feel like i'm burning myself out at this point i may bounce back down to the 100 hours, it'll just be a feel thing.

anyways, total bankroll would be looking at 15k + 7500 = 22.5k.

december - so this month is kind of it, if everything goes according to plan up until this month this will be my last month before i actually attempt to be a professional player. obviously i turn 21 this month so that is a big factor in it because i love playing live.

i want to play my 120 hour again and we'll add another 7500, so that makes 30k. now i have to decide what i want to do with some of this money, because there's really no reason to have 30k tied up in the bankroll.

first thing is first, i want my own car. i'm perfectly fine living at home for now and don't have a huge urge to get out of the house (although come this time i may change my mind about this). i would be willing to take out up to 15k for either a fat down payment on a new car or if a find something used i like that should be enough to just buy anything i would want straight up.

this would leave 15k online, i might decide i want to take some of this money out and play some live 2/5 either up at commerce or down at morongo a few days a week. i'm not 100% sure if i will do this now or wait a few more months, we'll see at the time.

anyways, assuming all has gone well to this point, i should have saved up a few grand from islands money as well. this money should suffice as backup for losing months and whatnot. if everything is going well at this point and i've been a winning 200NL player for 4 months i plan on putting in my 2 weeks at islands, registering for classes in the spring, and playing full time while going to school.

ugh, this all sounds so nice but making a plan and actually doing it are two different things. i mainly write all this just to show myself what i could actually achieve if i put the time into this though. poker is just so draining on me mentally and i need to be constantly reminding myself why i'm doing it and what my goals are. i guess that's what this blog is for, right?

so yea, there's my plan. whee. maybe i'll throw a girlfriend in there at some point as well ... idk whether to wait for her to bring up talking about us or to bring it up myself. she still says she's not sure what she wants, but to me it's pretty obvious she's just torn between what she wants and what she thinks she should do. the last thing i want to do is be pushy though because ultimately i just want her to be happy and not bring more stress on her while she's busy with school and getting ready for london and everything. i'll give it another week then bring it up again i guess.

i think that's all that's going on right now, i'll update again after i get my "office" set up.

-geoff

Saturday, July 19

i'd do cristian bale

what? he's good looking. that's not really the point of this post though, although that movie was pretty cool. best part is when the joker is driving the semi and batman puts the cables under it so it flips over, so fucking cool. anyways, just wanted to post quick about my recent endeavor at 100NL HU.

been running pretty hot, here's the official word.

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nothing really special i've been doing, although i did watch a CR vid to refresh before taking my little shot over the last few days. i think my biggest improvement was that i was TRYING to find bad players and not just sitting with whoever with the mentality that "i'm good enough to beat them, why not just play them?".

i realized that not playing someone does nothing to my pride and it says nothing negative about my game, if anything it says that i'm an intelligent player looker for the best edge i can get. before i took it as a shot to my ego if i couldn't run over someone, but that's just not the case. i could be the best NL player in the world, i would still have a VERY marginal edge of the 2nd best player.

i'm slowly starting to shed a bit of my ego, i felt like for a while i was trying to prove something by being good at poker, and like i should just be leaps and bounds better than anyone i play. that's just not going to be the case, i'm sure there are actually a handfull of players that ARE better than me at 100NL (although it is me, god i'm arrogant) :)

so yea, new mini-goal would be to keep up checking my ego at the door when i sit down to play because it's only going to get me into trouble. think i'm going to jump back to 6max and focus there for a bit, see how it goes.

bankroll is at 2450ish, which is actually really good. i'm up 281 total for the month over less than 9500 hands, the majority of which are at 50NL. pretty much all my winnings are from the 100NL HU though, i'm up 1 BI at 50NL 6max and down 2.5 at 100nL6max, down 4 at 50NL HU.

my long term goal was to play 200NL starting september i believe, so i'm well on track for that. i would really prefer to have 5k+ when i take my shot, not just the bare 20BI minimum that i want for shot taking. like i said earlier, i am in no rush to be a high roller. off for a 6max session, hopefully it doesn't go to shit :)

-geoff

Wednesday, July 16

just a quickie ...

just felt like posting before i put in a session, idk why. here it goes ...

working out: i managed to run enough to burn off 211 calories in 20 minutes (almost 2 miles) AFTER drinking ~2 1/2 beers half an hour earlier. this is really just a brag post, lol. i don't recommend it though, my tummy wasn't exceptionally happy.

personal life: lol, this is the last thing i want to think about right now. in a way it's going well, but it's taking a really weird path. it's confusing, spence knows all about it. i'm pretty sure she just needs/wants space for a little bit and i'm should be good at doing that because that's generally what i asked for from caroline, so yea. we'll figure out what's going on sometime next week hopefully.

poker: bankroll kept hitting around 2k, so i decided to take a shot at 100NL. first sessions didn't go so hot, down 2.5 buyins at 6max. it was just coolers though, ran AK into AA twice pre, got JJ in against AQ and it didn't hold and other stuff like that. played a little HU 100NL session as well and was up around 80 so not so bad. should have been more but i dropped a buy in like an idiot, should have only lost around 25 on the hand. hopefully i can keep up playing 100NL, idk what it is but i like it a lot better. i don't think it's my ego because shoving around $50 isn't anything to sneeze at, especially to all of my friends, but $100 just seems like a much rounder number and the bet sizing becomes whole dollars instead of bet sizing involving quarters. it just annoys me to be betting quarter amounts all the time.
so yea, the plan is stay at 100NL unless i drop below 1500, then i'd have to go back down to 50. i'll make this poker thing work some day i hope :)

oh yea, that reminds me. i just wanted to do a quick budget thing to see how much money i would need to be making from poker to be able to move out by staying at islands and being a semi-professional player. this is all speculation and just curiously, i'm in no means saying that i plan on trying this anytime soon nor do i even have the desire. relying on money from poker is very scary to me right now.

income from islands:

monday st3 - avg 50
tuesday st4 - avg 35
wed st2 - avg 75
fri st? - avg 60
sun st4 - avg 70

total weekly tips = 290 x 4 = 1160

checks = 300 ... 1460 income on average from islands/mo

cost of living --

car+insurance 350
gas 250
food 350
cell 30
CR/gym 65
CC 100
random 100
fun 100
rent 700

total : 2045

diffrence is 2045 - 1460 = 585

this budget would keep my living VERY tight, there's actually some stuff i didn't even add in there (ie: internet, cable) and i made the numbers for food/fun/rent pretty liberal. so yea, i need to get a better paying job or just make more at islands :) not to mention i need to pay for school and save up for london. mehhh, hopefully i'll be a bit more financially stable in 2009.

ok, time for a session.

-geoff

Saturday, July 12

been a while ...

so i've been really bad about updating this, i've wanted to post but have always gone off and done something else instead. oh well, not going to force myself to post.

been doing pretty well as of late with everything. just had the most amazing dinner i've ever had. i went to this french place in LA called Ortolan, it was freaking incredible. it was just me momma my uncle and chels and it was pretty fun. that place motivated me to want to make lots of money so i can go eat at nice restaurants often though lol.

i've been mixing things up a bit in poker and playing a LOT more lag, and i mean a lot. my usual stats before i mixed up my game were 18/15 with an ATS around 30. here are my new stats that i've been running over the last 1500 hands or so ...

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saying i've kicked up the aggression is an understatement, and it's been working amazing. i've started to throw out multiple street bluffs more often including two 3 barrels that were successful, hopefully i keep up the 100% success rate in that category because getting those picked off really sucks.

i think my problem before was i was counting on too much of my profit to come from showdown winnings, and i'm just not going to win very much at showdown against the tight nit regulars that make up 75% of the players on FTP. now that i've kicked up the aggression i'm getting myself into more position to pick up the pot with good, aggressive positional poker. i'm very very happy with my play the last two days and i really hope i can keep up this style of play because it's proving to be amazingly effective at these stakes. i should get back into 100NL in the next week if i continue to bulldoze these games.

here are just some graphs showing my showdown v non showdown winnings to illustrate what i was saying above, and i'll leave it at that for now.

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-geoff